Community members from across the area joined together on Wednesday, January 25 for the Bryan College Station Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Conference held at the Hilton in College Station. Guests heard from ten different speakers on local, state and national economic affairs including inflation, taxes and employment, among others. We have broken down a little from each speaker to share about the 2023 Brazos Valley economic outlook.
Session I
Session I featured an overview of updates and economic developments for the cities of Bryan and College Station as well as Texas A&M University.
Natalie Ruiz, Chief Development Officer for the city of College Station, detailed the economic growth that the city has experienced in the past couple of years, especially since the onset of pandemic in 2020. Ruiz detailed various successes over the past years including a 20% growth in sales tax revenue, hotel occupancy tax revenues reaching pre-pandemic levels, and a large growth in the biotechnology industry. She also shared a few ways in which College Station is redeveloping, including adding 10,000 beds for students in the new housing facilities under construction now in the Northgate District as well as repurposing the former Macy’s building at Post Oak Mall into a new e-gaming facility.
Presenting on the city of Bryan was City Deputy Manager Joey Dunn, who shared about the city’s growing population, increased infrastructure and a lower crime rate, which has been cut in half over the last 15 years. Dunn said the city has already seen much growth in the tourism and family entertainment sector with the addition of Midtown Park home to BigShots Golf Aggieland and the new Legends Event Center. He also said there is progress being made on the railroad quiet zone, with phases I and II already in progress, and announced the city was looking to make building improvements to BTU.
Finishing off Session I was Texas A&M’s Vice President for Academic & Strategic Collaborations Susan Ballabina, who shared about the university’s contributions to the Bryan College Station area. She shared that the university has made strides to the job market with one out of four jobs in the area belonging to a university employee. She also noted the growth of the enrollment of the university has helped to further expand the population of the area. Ballabina also shared the aspirations of the university, which includes expansion of the arts on campus with a new college and facility, the plans for a living/learning lab, and a youth engagement office as well as development in the childcare program.
Session II
Session II took a look at the local economy and working class as well as shared about current and upcoming construction projects in the area.
Executive Associate Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center, Dr. Andrew Rettenmaier, began Session II by discussing the local economy at the start of 2023 by taking a deep dive into statistics reported by the center all year with the monthly and quarterly reports. He noted the local unemployment rate, which is now at 3.2%, is still lower than the national and statewide average. Rettenmaier also made mention of the increase in revenue, and growth in infrastructure and population.
Next, B/CS Metropolitan Planning Organization Executive Director Dan Rudge shared about current and upcoming transportation projects including the William J Bryan restoration project bringing raised medians and the expansion of FM 2818 with the widening of the roads as well as an R-cut intersection providing safety to both vehicle and bicycle operators and pedestrians. He said the area can also expect to see more HAWKs (High Intensity Activated Crosswalks) around town, which will help to allow a more walkable path for pedestrians. Rudge also shared about other projects which are still in design including Wellborn road, FM 1179 and University Drive.
Spherion owner Katherine Kleeman shared about the current state of the workforce in Bryan College Station. Although the labor force participation is still not back to what it was pre-pandemic, hourly wages have grown 5% each year between 2018 and 2021. She discussed Gen Z and how their generation has influenced the workforce, specifically in the “gig economy,” which is temporary and part-time work that allows the employee to have more flexibility when it comes to when and where an individual works. Kleeman noted that most people under 35 are now participating in this market, and experts are still unsure how this will affect the job market moving forward.
Session III
Session III looked beyond the walls of Bryan College Station discussing the impact of trade, the power grid and Texas A&M University at Galveston.
Texas A&M Agriculture & Food Policy Center program director Dr. Luis Ribera shared about the importance of trade, inflation, and the impact of the Russia/Ukraine war. He elaborated on the benefits of trade freedom including a higher average national income, more food security, more political stability, and healthier environments. Ribera also discussed inflation, which he defined as the loss of purchasing power due to increase in money supply not supported by an increase of the production of goods and services, and whether or not the war caused it.
Next, guests heard from ERCOT Vice Chairman William “Bill” Flores, who shared about the significant changes made to the Texas Energy System since Winter Storm Uri including system weatherization and more conservative operating protocols. He says there were several records set during the summer with no disruptions and progress made during Winter Storm Elliot. Flores says he believes that as a state Texas should prioritize reliable, affordable, abundant, and clean power, but that investing in a proper market design and effective policy making is essential to the future of electricity.
Retired Col. Michael Fossum, Vice President of Texas A&M University at Galveston shared about the university's impact on port activity including various programs such as the School of Engineering and Maritime Academy. He emphasized the vitality of the ports, which brings in over 90% of everything we eat, wear, use or drive, and how this directly positively impacts our economy. Fossum also discussed the hopes of growing the ports in Houston and Galveston, as well as the university’s involvement in the future of the ports.
Keynote Speaker
Former Chief Economist for Texas A&M’s Texas Real Estate Research Center Dr. James Gaines concluded the conference as the keynote speaker sharing about the economic reports of Bryan College Station, Texas and the nation. Gaines said many of the statistics are moving back toward pre-pandemic numbers, showing great improvement toward a more stable economy as a nation.
In Texas, Gaines said that job recovery is essentially complete and an increase in the number of jobs and income has greatly increased. Texas has also seen a huge growth in the distribution and biomedical industries. The state has also seen a massive growth in population with nearly 800,000 new residents in the past two years and has now reached over 30 million people as of 2022. Looking ahead, the state is expecting to see a population growth of about 400,000 people per year and jobs are anticipated to grow at 3%.
Looking at the local economy in Bryan College Station, unemployment is down to 3.1%, reaching its highest peak in April 2020 at 9%. The area is seeing an influx in the number of private sector businesses, which is contributing to the highest number of jobs.
Gaines concluded that the U.S. economy was shaky and that a minor recession is likely in the second half of the year. Though, Texas will weather the national economic slowdown much better than other states. As for Bryan College Station, it is somewhat of an isolated area due to Texas A&M’s stability and private job growth.
